A possible decline in prevalence rates of HIV in Nigeria has been reported recently over the last few years (5.8% in 2001 to 5% in 2003 and 4.4% in 2005) FMOH (2006). Several factors may explain the observed decline including the effect of the ongoing intervention efforts, the increase in the number of rural survey sites, and death of those previously infected. The present study is aimed at evaluating the prevalence and incidence rates of HIV at map location indicating high and low risk areas in the North-Eastern States of Nigeria. A review was conducted of published reports and literature, raw and modeled. Two different data sets were used to get the invectives’. The prevalence rates from sentinel surveys were multiplied by the respective years of census figures. After the transformation the data was then tested for normality using MINITAB version 13 and STATGRAPHIC version 5.0. A generalized statistical model was also developed using R version 2.8.1 Statistical software. Where, years have been considered as time and locations as space. The risk maps were generated using ArcView GIS version 3.2a software. Observation was restricted to adult population among pregnant women aged 15-49years. Result show that there are significant changes in general. This was shown in figure 3, where Yobe is leading the increase followed by Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe States. However, Adamawa observed no changes in the prevalence rates of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. However, the model was able to explain about 76% of the variability indicating a better fit and location (states) contributes significantly to the spread of HIV than time.